I’ve written previously in this blog about the exponential potential of connected technologies, and a few weeks ago I ran an event that brought together architects with digital specialists to explore technology’s increasing role in the built environment.

Naturally we talked about growing investment in the commonly termed smart cities and buildings, and we heard from those in the know about new initiatives looking to use open data as a means to make the construction industry more transparent and accountable. We also discussed the potential of using real-time data to map the psycho-geography of urban spaces.

The speakers provided much food for thought. Indeed the potential for interdisciplinary thinking between our two specialisms is really exciting. I was reminded that architects pretty much wrote the book on user centred design – using technology to make the environment more human was, and still is, a universal theme.

Aptly, this was also the week that the global phenomenon Pokemon Go launched in the UK. Early data from the US suggested that in its first few weeks Pokemon Go saw the fastest ever growth in installs for a game app, more time spent per day than Facebook and daily active users approaching that of Google Maps.

That’s pretty remarkable – more so when you consider that augmented reality (AR) has struggled to go mainstream since Google Glass was launched over three years ago. Such rapid adoption of an AR app presents compelling evidence that we’ve passed a significant milestone.

If you consider the booming trade in connected home technologies, investment in smart buildings, cities and spaces, and the growth in viable AR/VR media and entertainment platforms, I think it’s safe to say that the distinction between the physical and digital worlds is breaking down more rapidly than ever, and the dominance of screen-based digital experiences is looking increasingly tenuous.

Examined through a more critical lens, Pokemon Go is a fairly ordinary concept, little more than a butterfly net made in AR. It’s simultaneously a breakthrough moment for AR and an artifact of a digital age that has had its day. Marketers are getting excited by the sponsored retail opportunities, but to me this feels like a collective attempt to ‘jump the shark’.

Whether it’s a tipping point or a last gasp, or both, the world has undeniably demonstrated a readiness for magical experiences that are interwoven with the real-world. That genie is not going back in the bottle.

I think we’re now transitioning into a post-digital era. We’ll rapidly see a reduction in the layers separating us from physical and virtual interfaces. Digital as we know it will become the plumbing of a technology-enabled environment. Tom Goodwin does a good job of defining the three ages of digital if you are interested in digging deeper.

The arrival of the post-digital era is a huge triumph for those who have championed digital technologies and shepherded the world through a global transformation that has changed the lives of billions. However, recent history suggests that the first breakthrough innovations of the post-digital era will be conceived in bedrooms rather than boardrooms or agency brainstorms. We either need to retool for the new reality or prepare to be disrupted by a new generation of post-digital natives.

Whilst technology appears to be developing at a fearsome rate, much of the excitement is already generated off-screen. Digital designers and developers used to be at the forefront of innovation – we owned our interface with the possible. But with great power comes great responsibility. We’ve become absorbed in the worthy task of making it work better – ironing out the creases in the experience and endlessly refining interfaces whilst others seized the initiative.

Now the bleeding edge has moved on. The new frontier is occupied by product engineers, fashion designers, fintech entrepreneurs, physicists and data scientists. Just take a look at the latest developments from Google’s Project Jacquard.

I’m willing to bet that while screens will still matter, they’ll be commoditised and are unlikely to play a significant role in the next wave of innovation.

So, what does post-digital mean for the digital industry? Do we all just pack up and go home? Thankfully, the answer is no. Design thinking is more relevant than ever before, developers and programmers will run the post-digital landscape in the background, and interaction designers just inherited a whole new dimension to play with. As for project managers ­– they never go out of fashion!

But there will inevitably be a shakeup. We must step out of the digital bubble and take a skeptical view of the established principles we’ve grown to rely on. We need to team up with other disciplines – architects, engineers, product designers, urban planners, artists – and seek out opportunities to collaborate and experiment. I sense the reluctance to let go of screens, but the post-digital frontier will be the physical environment, and the sooner we start reimagining our disciplines with that in mind the better.

Originally published in The Drum Network http://www.thedrum.com/opinion/2016/08/10/digital-jumps-shark-hello-post-digital-era

The media have also been paying attention; connected homes are now frequently featured in business and consumer press. Most recently, John Lewis announced that they were devoting a space in their flagship London store to connected devices and products. Having seen 81 per cent growth in sales over the previous year, that looks like a sound investment.

Our clients are also getting involved. We’re working with E.ON to connect their smart meters with their website, and we were excited to see Sony announcing their new connected product range Life Space UX at CES recently. IoT 1.0 is well and truly here. The immediate focus seems to be on monitoring and controlling our environment, and reducing the friction in doing just about anything anyone can think of.

Naturally, sceptics abound, but that’s understandable. We’re at the beginning of a long journey, and there’s not much in the current crop of connected products that inspires a great deal of excitement. But frankly the same could have been said of the late nineties: in the days of Ggeocities and Alta Vista it was hard to imagine the speed with which the web would evolve.

Beyond products: this is changing everything around us

Of course, the IoT is not restricted to consumer products, and it’s interesting to see data specialists like Jim Anning at British Gas getting excited about ‘sexy’ minority report style interventions to fix boilers before they need fixing. And in my own experience, I’ve explored the benefits of introducing IoT to Catalyst housing, where there is potential to deliver huge cost savings and customer experience improvements using sensors and automation. Indeed, these approaches have been used in Industry since the 1970s – search SCADA to find out more.

There are some encouraging concepts emerging elsewhere too, particularly within the connected car space. VISA have been working with Hyundai on a prototype of connected services centred on payments, and a range of organisations are looking at different facets of the opportunity, including car-to-car communications (safety) and monitoring / telematics (insurance).

It’s interesting to see how the connected car opportunity is far less focused on individuals interacting with objects. Instead these innovations place more emphasis on data, location, and interactions with other objects; scenarios involving multiple actors and observers within dynamic environments, where everyone and everything within those environments is a potential participant or contributor. This offers a clearer signal as to the true potential of IoT.

The key to these scenarios is simplicity. Humans will not welcome a connected world that requires constant intervention. Wherever possible machines, products, and services will need to work behind the scenes. Automation and personalisation must deliver experiences that just happen. Given that assertion, the threat to progress in the IoT space becomes abundantly clear.

Technology giants vs Open source

Within the new commercial and technical spaces created by IoT, battles for supremacy and dominance are naturally emerging. Established technology giants are ranged against startups, as well as ambitious hardware manufacturers. A number of alliances have been formed and proprietary platforms are creating unwelcome layers of complexity that will hinder adoption if left unchecked.

Fortunately, there are some interesting and exciting counterweights emerging. Microsoft are championing ‘Open Translators’ as a means of enabling interactions between different proprietary platforms and hardware. Meanwhile, the Blockchain is increasingly touted as a world changing technology. Its ability to establish verifiable truths about digital transactions provides a potential solution to the gnarly authentication challenge.

Commercial opportunities and pitfalls

With connections to homes, vehicles and environments, organisations will be closer to consumers than ever. Contextual personalisation should give rise to business propositions tightly focused on measurable outcomes; dynamic insurance policies for example, tightly tied to consumption, location, and other factors. We’ll also see frictionless purchases, such as Amazon’s DRS, an instant replenishment system for consumables used by printers and coffee machines alike.

We’ll see ‘traditional’ products move into service relationships, and sometimes morph into something else entirely. AT&T’s digital life hub was once a home security product. Over the course of their natural replacement and sales cycle they shipped their boxes with a range of connected technologies including Z-Wave, ZigBee, Bluetooth, and more besides. Suddenly, with a range of product and hardware partners, they were a major player in the smart home market.

Of course, ‘with great power, comes great responsibility’. Nest recently ventured beyond the smart thermostat market, with their purchase of Revolv – a German smart home hub. They’ve bricked that product and absorbed the team within Nest, to the chagrin of customers, who’d purchased those hubs with the promise of long-term support. Companies who enter the IoT space need to factor in the long-term responsibilities inherent in IoT products and their integration with customer’s lives.

The data gathered by connected products and service is a source of great promise. The IoT takes us beyond the realm of big data and into a realm of massive data. Convergence of multiple sources of data will unlock enormous potential for organisations to exploit data for commercial gain. However, Simon Morrissey at Lewis Silkin highlighted that “regulators are already considering the ramifications of what could amount to in-home surveillance. Permissions and consent will be critical and this could limit the opportunities for commercial exploitation”.

So where does this leave us?

With all this data flowing between connected products, services and platforms, it seems likely that organisational mindsets will shift toward partnerships and collaboration. For example, Innit – a new kitchen product ecosystem – have negotiated an interesting tie-in with Good Housekeeping, an established and trusted publisher with a valuable archive of recipes. It’s no great leap to imagine their content served up in the kitchen. Revenue will increasingly rely on the ‘network effect’ of integrating commercial ambitions in complex value chains.

Fridges, mixers, and cookers, seem likely to become vehicles for contextual advice and product promotion but, as Geraint Lloyd Taylor at Lewis Silkin was keen to emphasise, where content is concerned the boundaries between information and marketing will need to be understood. While seeking new opportunities, organisations cannot afford to discount established guidance for advertising and marketing.

In among all these opportunities, hardware manufacturers need to be aware of their changing roles. David Deakin at Lewis Silkin suggested the likelihood that connected kitchen products would inevitably introduce biddable product advertising opportunities. Where there’s a recipe, there are products needed to make it, and with ordering capability wired in brands are sure to try to gain preferential contextual placements.

Welcome to the world of kitchen products as services and media networks! Indeed, you could draw a parallel with the set top boxes introduced into our homes by cable TV providers. Once upon a time these cost a few hundred quid on subscription, but they swiftly became bundled into the subscription. So here’s a thought – will my connected fridge be given freely by my groceries supplier in return for a contract tying me into a relationship?

Put simply, I am convinced that the IoT will usher in a new wave of disruption, potentially on a grander scale than we’ve already experienced. Organisations wishing to embrace the wealth of opportunities presented should have no illusions as to the extent of change required. Changing roles will introduce new roles, skills, and competences. Connected technologies require heavily integrated back-end systems. And an ever-changing commercial landscape will favour agile and flexible businesses. The IoT offers tremendous rewards for the brave and the bold, and little room for prevarication. I say bring it on.

(Originally posted in The Drum Network http://www.thedrum.com/opinion/2016/05/03/connecting-disconnected-internet-everything)